Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 4.564949 5.461540 6.459307 7.647882 9.020852 10.552550 12.386005
2025-02-23 3.103597 4.199731 5.548682 7.314222 9.545468 12.251448 15.758938
2025-03-02 2.204870 3.325396 4.829873 6.961472 9.861392 13.621229 18.807883
2025-03-09 1.716723 2.846167 4.480461 6.955346 10.532288 15.425895 22.517190
2025-03-16 1.379181 2.492504 4.215524 6.982280 11.195710 17.229397 26.340847
2025-03-23 1.119385 2.194194 3.964907 6.964524 11.752102 18.890599 30.065937
2025-03-30 0.871775 1.855967 3.582343 6.665310 11.815344 19.797222 32.726692
2025-04-06 0.724754 1.662810 3.403173 6.658791 12.316429 21.380492 36.493986
2025-04-13 0.601324 1.485217 3.217148 6.604558 12.715660 22.814856 40.112715
2025-04-20 0.547747 1.438667 3.264755 6.968084 13.853164 25.516158 45.920910
2025-04-27 0.487827 1.364121 3.243647 7.195456 14.763739 27.897686 51.354427
2025-05-04 0.445825 1.321096 3.278155 7.529750 15.891774 30.718698 57.686126
2025-05-11 0.378416 1.202427 3.138428 7.509278 16.376604 32.495307 62.432436
2025-05-18 0.305590 1.049843 2.896715 7.244812 16.365564 33.390824 65.721164
2025-05-25 0.242623 0.904717 2.643413 6.915807 16.184972 33.952547 68.443930
2025-06-01 0.207544 0.830375 2.546388 6.916776 16.666813 35.767701 73.519424
2025-06-08 0.179091 0.767815 2.467112 6.945980 17.206134 37.723058 78.961480
2025-06-15 0.153134 0.704871 2.374441 6.929114 17.641267 39.500385 84.168373
2025-06-22 0.122086 0.611963 2.179536 6.631483 17.425797 39.970742 86.916882
2025-06-29 0.104750 0.564193 2.104285 6.625081 17.861172 41.773458 92.326081
2025-07-06 0.088800 0.515524 2.016000 6.571115 18.178956 43.351547 97.377803
2025-07-13 0.084302 0.514966 2.078676 6.933068 19.509249 47.120630 106.968602
2025-07-20 0.077219 0.499991 2.091873 7.159458 20.532019 50.297762 115.524436